【本周必關注】美中談判關稅休兵將再延長3個月，後續指數表現與操作重點

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美中談判關稅休兵將再延長3個月

後續指數表現與操作重點

【本週重點國際財經大事】

  • 7月28-29日美中代表在瑞典舉行第三輪談判。談判前，美中雙方同意將關稅戰「停火期」再延90天，為後續談判留出空間，然而實質進展仍具不確定性，市場反應將取決於後續溝通成果與政策走向。

【投資/操作建議】

項目

樂觀

中性

悲觀
市場情境 停火帶動風險資產反彈 市場觀望後續談判進展 延長只是拖延，談判最終破局
機率估計 約35% 約55% 約10%
加權指數表現 有望挑戰前波高點 區間震盪整理 恐有回測壓力
外資操作 買超動能持續 轉為中性觀望 出現賣超壓力
選擇權策略 買進價外買權 買進價平買權或價平賣權 買進價外賣權

【選擇權4種操作型態】小資金也能參與行情！

買權Call

賣權Put

買方(buy)

買入買權Buy Call：預期大漲

價格上漲，獲利無限/價格下跌，損失權利金

買入賣權Buy Put：預期大跌

價格下跌，獲利無限/價格上漲，損失權利金

賣方(sell)

賣出買權Buy Call：預期小跌

價格下跌，賺取權利金/價格上漲，損失無限

買入買權Buy Call：預期小漲

價格上漲，賺取權利金/價格下跌，損失無限

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