重量級經濟指標：消費者物價指數(CPI)，將於今天公布！

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解析美國最新2025年2 月消費者物價指數

  • 美國 2 月 CPI 於本週三 (3/12) 出爐，市場預估CPI及核心CPI增速分別放緩至2.9%及3.2%。

  • 從經濟環境分析，川普關稅政策反覆，持續加深對股市干擾，而近期公布的 ISM 製造業及服務業 PMI細項顯示，價格指數分別大幅上升至 62.4 及 62.6 (前值為 54.9及60.4)，顯示企業已開始面對成本上升的壓力，加上最新亞特蘭大聯儲經濟預估模型預估美國第一季GDP恐出現負成長，市場對景氣下行的擔憂升溫，若週三CPI通膨數據大幅高於預期，可能再度引發停滯性通膨疑慮，恐衝擊股市信心；但若CPI數據低於預期，因美國就業市場已出現疲弱跡象，報告顯示越來越多的人長期失業，轉而從事兼職的工作，因此疲弱的CPI將有助提高市場對聯準會降息預期，有利股市反彈。

面對情境

對市場影響與分析

預期狀況

CPI公布數據高於預期

停滯性通膨疑慮升溫

不利股市止穩

CP公布數據低於預期或符合預期

有助提高聯準會降息預期

有利股市反彈
可關注重點商品：美指期貨、微型台指期貨

商品

微型那斯達克

微型 S&P 500

微型小道瓊

微型台指期

交易幣別

美金

美金

美金

台幣

交易所

芝加哥商業交易所(CME)

芝加哥商業交易所(CME)

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)

台灣期貨交易所(TAIFEX)

合約規格

指數*2美元

指數*5美元

指數*0.5美元

指數*NTD10

保證金

2,442元

1,606元

1,144元

16,100元

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